Forum Rules Statement of Purpose Membership Disclaimer Site History
Adkhighpeaks Foundation Donations and Online Store Adkhighpeaks Wiki visit ADKForum.com

Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Not sure if I believe this...

Collapse
X
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Not sure if I believe this...




    Speaks for itself, but I haven't seen the same forecast from others so I'll wait and see if this really happens.

  • #2
    Believe it. National Weather Service/ NOAA forecast as of an hour ago...

    THE FORECAST FOR MOUNT MARCY, NEW YORK AT 5,344 FT: LAST UPDATED AT 211 PM EST FRI MAR 10 2017 .

    TONIGHT...SUMMITS OBSCURED IN CLOUDS UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW AROUND 23 BELOW. NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 60 BELOW.

    SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH AROUND 18 BELOW. NORTHWEST WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 60 BELOW.

    SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW AROUND 19 BELOW. NORTHWEST WINDS 40 TO 45 MPH. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 55 BELOW.

    SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING OBSCURED IN CLOUDS. HIGH AROUND 8 BELOW. NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 40 MPH...BECOMING WEST 25 TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 43 BELOW.

    Comment


    • #3
      I think Thomas was pointing to the snowfall as much as the temperatures (or maybe I'm just a snowfall optimist and glossed right past the cold temperature readings). 75 centimeters of snow in a 24hour period on Tuesday... or 30 inches is a LOT of snow in one day!! That means some excellent skiing for those who dare to venture out on Wednesday! And some heavy trailbreaking for those who snowshoe! Add to that some pretty strong winds and some deep drifts are likely to form (far deeper than 30inches). On the plus side, the temperature appears to remain pretty cold so the snow will be a light, dry powder... or maybe that's a negative because those drifts will be bottomless

      That said, I agree that maybe there is something strange with the weather model that's accidently skewed the data. I haven't seen that forecast anywhere else either so I'll "wait and see" what old man winter does next week.

      Comment


      • #4
        I guess I should have been more specific. It is the snow I was pointing out. I kind of glossed over the cold temps also - other forecasters at least agree with that.

        Comment


        • Makwa
          Makwa commented
          Editing a comment
          haha... sorry. I didn't even look that far ahead!

        • Hear the Footsteps
          Hear the Footsteps commented
          Editing a comment
          I'm hoping it is true....

      • #5
        Wunderground is currently predicting a 50% chance of 12-20cm for Keene Valley on Tuesday. Temperature is predicted to be slightly below freezing so it means big fluffy flakes ... or a slight upward shift in temps will have it all come down as drizzle or rain. :(
        https://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin...e+Valley%2C+NY
        Nevertheless, higher elevations are more likely to receive it as snow.

        ​Take your pick: snowcrete trails with flesh-freezing windchill or oodles of trail-breaking in milder temps.
        Looking for Views!

        Comment


        • Thomas
          Thomas commented
          Editing a comment
          Is that a 100% chance of 6-10cm?

        • Trail Boss
          Trail Boss commented
          Editing a comment


          As of today they've updated it to 100% chance of 30+ cm for Tuesday (plus several more over the following two days). Looks like an all-out "Trail-Breaking Festival" this weekend.

          I have thoughts of the Santanonis dancing in my head. They have a reputation for being snow magnets ... so my dream may go unrealized.

      • #6
        Over the past 24 hours, both Wunderground and NOAA have bumped up their chance of snow for Tuesday-Wednesday. Wunderground now has 5-8 inches on Wednesday and 1-3 inches on Thursday in Keene Valley, so I would expect more at elevation.

        Temps in the valley look to be stable just under freezing once this cold snap leaves, so maybe the snow will be "just right"? I sure hope so.

        (5-8 inches is like, what, 700cm? )
        ADK 46/46W, Grid 227/552
        Photos & Stuff

        Comment


        • #7
          May have to activate the trailbreaking muscles again.

          (Conversion factor is 2.54, or 2.5 between friends)

          Comment


          • #8
            Looks like a potentially BIG Nor' Easter, lots of snow possible. However, tons of uncertainty with the track. Looks like the heaviest snow will be to the southeast of the ADK, but ADK is within the margin of error. On the flip side, the storm may go almost entirely out to sea yet, so keep an eye on it, but don't get your hopes up!

            Comment


            • #9
              I don't know why anyone with 25 inch snowshoes would get their hopes up, but the Catskills are supposed to get maybe 40 inches. Whoopee!

              But, like you say, might be wishful thinking.
              I might be kidding...

              Comment


              • #10
                What was looking like 40 is now only looking like 16, and that is the mountain top forecast, so not as exciting.
                I might be kidding...

                Comment


                • #11
                  NOAA forecast for the week has temps in the 20's, so that should be good. Any snow is better than nothing...I didn't relish the idea of having to wear spikes or crampons next weekend.
                  #8335W, Solo 46W
                  Four Season 31/46
                  46 Grid 256/552
                  NE 111 113/115


                  One list may be done, but the journey is far from over...
                  Half Dome, 2009

                  Comment


                  • #12
                    What was looking like 16 inches on top of Panther Mountain is now looking like 11. What has happened to our hopes, our dreams?
                    I might be kidding...

                    Comment


                    • Thomas
                      Thomas commented
                      Editing a comment
                      Dashed by the forecasters' algorithm.

                    • CatskillKev
                      CatskillKev commented
                      Editing a comment
                      While visions of floating and sinking danced in our heads.

                  • #13
                    Good news! The numbers are trending up again!
                    I might be kidding...

                    Comment


                    • autochromatica
                      autochromatica commented
                      Editing a comment
                      Glad Thomas captured a screen shot, we can see how close they were 5-6 days out. Since it's gone up and down a few times, it should be a surprise either way.

                      Now to dust off my 25" post-holers.

                  • #14
                    NWS forecast for Keene, NY,has gone up:
                    Tuesday 4-8"
                    Tuesday night 5-9"
                    Wednesday 1-3"

                    Kev, for Big Indian the forecast is 1-2 " tonight, Tues. 9-13" and Tues. night 3-5". Enjoy!!!

                    Comment


                    • CatskillKev
                      CatskillKev commented
                      Editing a comment
                      Blackhead Range summits are back to 40 inches, but now that is counting snow on next Saturday.

                  • #15
                    This is getting serious! Back to 40 inches and 4 feet by Saturday.
                    I might be kidding...

                    Comment

                    Working...
                    X